Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.6% in May 2019 compared with May 2018 and increased month over month by 0.9% in May 2019 compared with April 2019 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.)
Forecast Prices Nationally – The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.6% on a y/y basis from May 2019 to May 2020. On a m/m basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.8% from May 2019 to June 2019.
HPI & Case-Shiller Trends – We note that both the CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined tier and the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index are posting positive, but moderating y/y percent changes, and forecasting gains for the next year.
2019 CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study
During the first quarter of 2019, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut, conducted an extensive survey measuring consumer-housing sentiment in high-priced markets. Despite significant increases in home prices in these markets, supply remains challenged as home owners question their ability to afford replacement homes. In the last three years, 25% of residents in high-priced markets have bought a home, while only 6% have sold, according to the survey. Similarly, only 22% say they plan to buy while only 7% say they plan to sell. Four in 10 sellers say that affording a new home would require them to move outside of their current market.
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.
– Nationally, the y/y home price changed by 3.6%. All states but North Dakota experienced increases since May 2018.
– The states with the highest increases? y/y were Idaho (10.7%) Utah (7.8%) and South Dakota (7.7%).
– Nationally, Las Vegas lead the cities with price increases of 7.1% y/y.
In an analysis of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 38% of cities have an overvalued housing stock as of May 2019, according to CoreLogic Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) data. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. 24% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 38% were at value.
– CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases?including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data?and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.
– CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.
– Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry?complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month?all pricing history from 1976 to the current month?to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.
Note: The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.
**Information via Economic Focus**